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High Valuations, Flat Deals: Venture Capital's Selective Betting

by

Sammy Abdullah

Pitchbook just released its Q2 2025 Venture Monitor Report. It’s a good read and very comprehensive on the state of venture investing. The chart below really stands out as it shows the value on venture deals really popping since 2024, however deal count is roughly flat. It’s being driven by AI-first startups getting nose bleed valuations while the rest kind of languish.

According to Pitchbook, “Investor appetite remained focused on high-performing startups with clear growth trajectories, as evidenced by continued valuation expansion across series. In Q2, the median US VC pre-money valuation rose YoY — consistent with the trend observed from 2023 to 2024. Notably, every series of the venture lifecycle — except Series D+ — reached decade-high valuation medians, suggesting GPs are increasingly selective, backing fewer but higher-quality companies. Valuation multiples are expanding, with the market finding trouble gauging the true future potential of AI.”

It goes on, “the bifurcation between well positioned and struggling startups has become pronounced. Median deal sizes continued to climb across all series in Q2 2025. Pre-seed deals saw the sharpest increase, rising 42.3% YoY, followed by a 40.5% jump at Series C and a 16.1% uptick in the seed stage. At the same time, smaller deals accounted for a diminishing share of overall deal activity. The share of sub-$5 million rounds fell to 48.6% of all VC deals, down from 55.4% in 2024, marking a decade low. This shift underscores a selective market environment where capital increasingly flows to startups with strong traction.”

So what’s it all mean? If you’re an AI-first company with fast growth, VC are giving you more money than you need at really high valuations. If you’re a classic SaaS business with good growth raising only a few million, you may struggle to get that round done. That said, please reach out to us as classic SaaS growing 30%+ is what we love — sammy@blossomstreetventures.com.

Thank you for your readership. See more blogs and SaaS data at blossomstreetventures.com. Email the author at sammy@blossomstreetventures.com.

‍

Sammy Abdullah

Managing Partner & Co-Founder

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